Year starts slowly but more activity being reported - REINZ stats January 2023

The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand’s (REINZ) January 2023 figures show house prices have declined but at a slower rate than seen previously.

The median sale price has decreased nationally by 13.3% overall to $762,500 and decreased 9.3% for New Zealand excluding Auckland to $679,000. The REINZ House Price Index (HPI) showed an annual decrease of 13.9% in the value of residential property nationwide which is in line with the sale price changes seen

“The flip side to this is the seasonal effect of January. In seasonally adjusted terms, this month’s numbers show a January that performed better than expected. The sales counts are down for January 2023 compared to December 2022 for Auckland by 31.5%. When the seasonality is removed, the sales count numbers show Auckland performed 19.4% better than expected when compared to December.”

“Reports of more activity in the market are growing “Agents in many areas are reporting more attendance at open homes, more interest online and even more multi-offer situations. Inventory has increased 39.4% year-on year, now sitting at 27,732 properties which provides plenty of choice for buyers. Add to that prices that have eased over the last 12 months, and some less bad economic news coming out recently, it seems there are more buyers active in the market. February and March data will tell us if they choose to act” adds Baird.

“This is interesting data and does indicate a slowing of the decline. The coming months will be telling as the country braces for more activity both in the weather and the property market,” concludes Baird.

“Salespeople around the country say owner occupiers remain active, and that there has been increased interest in out of town buyers looking in different regions. Sellers are tending to be more realistic and will usually meet the market through negotiation — however, many remain cautious with properties taking longer to sell, and investors sparse.”

Regional Highlights

 - Wellington, Auckland, Northland, and Bay of Plenty had the largest drop in median sale price with -16.4%, -21.7%, -16.6%, and -18.8% respectively.

- Gisborne, Taranaki and West Coast were the only regions seeing an increase in the median sale price, up 3.8%, 0.8% and 5.3% respectively.- 

- The Thames-Coromandel District reached a record median of $1,450,000.

Regional Analysis - Northland

“Northland’s median price decreased annually by 16.6% to $685,000 this January.

“A feeling of caution is evident in Northland’s market with fewer committed buyers through all price ranges. Open home attendance was sporadic due to weather conditions, however fresh stock in the middle price range seemed to attract sound attention.

“The number of sales in January eased annually by 36.3% largely due to rising interest rates, cost of living, and buyer caution which is seeing many sitting on their purchase decisions. There has been more stock coming to the market from vendors who genuinely want or need to sell their property.

“Local salespeople say that they expect uncertainty in the market to continue for a few more months due to interest rates, building costs and compliances, and the anticipation of an election year.” (REINZ)

The current Days to Sell of 57 days is more than the 10-year average for January which is 53 days. There were 51 weeks of inventory in January 2023 which is 35 weeks more than the same time last year.

Regional Analysis - Auckland

“Tāmaki Makaurau saw its median price decrease annually by 21.7% to $940,000 in January 2023. This is the first time since January 2021 that Auckland has had a median price under $1,000,000.

“The flooding events which occurred at the end of January impacted auctions and open homes. Auckland salespeople say at this point it’s hard to gauge whether people will want to enter the market or whether they will become more cautious in the coming weeks and months following the floods.

“January saw the amount of sales decrease by 29.9% year-on-year, largely due to lending criteria, rising interest rates, weather events and the cost of living.” (REINZ)

The current Days to Sell of 51 days is more than the 10-year average for January which is 41 days. There were 32 weeks of inventory in January 2023 which is 16 weeks more than the same time last year.

Regional Analysis - Waikato

In January, Waikato’s median price decreased 5.7% year-on-year to $773,000. The Thames Coromandel District reached a record median of $1,450,000.

“Taupō saw an increase of holiday home buyers to its region due to the time of the year and people visiting over the holidays. Owner occupiers were also active — particularly those looking to downsize and reduce mortgage debt.

“Thames was significantly impacted by extreme weather which greatly impacted open home attendance. Market activity slowed near the end of the month on the eastern side of the Coromandel Peninsula due to damaged roads.

“Sales counts throughout the Waikato region decreased by 32.3% annually, largely due to economic uncertainty, rising interest rates and extreme weather events.” (REINZ)

The current Days to Sell of 61 days is much more than the 10-year average for January which is 46 days. There were 38 weeks of inventory in January 2023 which is 25 weeks more than the same time last year.

Regional Analysis - Bay of Plenty

“The median price in the Bay of Plenty was down 18.8% year-on-year to $765,000.

“In Rotorua and Tauranga, first home buyers were active as well as people down-sizing for retirement. In Rotorua, more interest from developers was also evident.

“Open homes saw improved attendance with many prospective buyers interested in transacting provided they can secure finance. The flooding events in the upper North Island may have a flow-on effect with its potential to add to inflation challenges, and local salespeople say it adds further uncertainty to Bay of Plenty’s market.

“Securing finance and rising interest rates continue to restrict market activity. However, some educated vendors are coming to the market with inventory up 60.9% on this time last year.” (REINZ)

The current Days to Sell of 63 days is much more than the 10-year average for January which is 52 days. There were 33 weeks of inventory in January 2023 which is 21 weeks more than the same time last year.

Regional Analysis - Gisborne

“Gisborne’s median price saw an increase of 3.8% annually to $675,000.

“Like many regions around the country, the most active buyers in the region over January were owner occupiers. Investors and first home buyers remain impacted by rising interest rates and the ability to secure finance.

“Many buyers have a fear of overpaying — some still taking a wait-and-see approach as they anticipate house prices to ease further. The number of sales over January was down 31.8% year-on-year, and properties are spending a longer length of time on the market before they sell — up 25 days annually.” (REINZ)

The current Days to Sell of 63 days is much more than the 10-year average for January which is 45 days. There are 23 weeks of inventory in January 2023 which is 16 weeks more than last year.

Regional Analysis - Hawke's Bay

“In January, the median price in Hawke’s Bay decreased by 16.2% annually to $657,500.

“First home buyers were noted as the most active buyer pool, followed by owner occupiers. Attendance at open homes improved and vendors are being more reasonable with their expectations on price.

“Sales counts decreased 14.5% annually, largely due to rising interest rates and buyers having difficulty securing finance. Local salespeople say they are hopeful that market confidence will improve but are weary of recent flooding events which may have a national downside impact on the housing market.” (REINZ)

The current Days to Sell of 53 days is more than the 10-year average for January which is 44 days. There were 24 weeks of inventory in January 2023 which is 13 weeks more than the same time last year.

Regional Analysis - Taranaki

“The median price in Taranaki saw a slight increase of 0.8% annually to $635,000.

“Salespeople report a noticeable increase in activity from buyers looking for properties under the $700,000 price point. While some of these are first home buyers, the majority appear to be current homeowners.

“There has been good enquiry from most buyer pools, but many are reluctant to act due to lingering uncertainty about the property market and the economy. Most vendors are not realistic about their expectations on price and timeframe, and price reductions are becoming common if a property takes longer than four to six weeks to sell. The median days to sell a property increased by 22 days annually from 30 days in January 2022 to 52 in January 2023.

“Taranaki currently has a strong supply of listings in most property types and price brackets, but buyers remain hesitant to act and so activity is limited.” (REINZ)

The current Days to Sell of 52 days is more than the 10-year average for January which is 44 days. There were 24 weeks of inventory in January 2023 which is 16 weeks more than the same time last year. 

Regional Analysis - Manawatu/Whanganui

“Manawatu/Whanganui’s median price decreased 12.6% year-on-year to $520,000.

“Owner occupiers were the most active buyer pool throughout January. First home buyer enquiry was light as they continue to struggle with obtaining finance.

“Sales counts were down a little on this time last year (-8.1%), due to rising interest rates and difficulty securing finance. Vendors are reassessing if the time to sell is now, or if they should wait.” (REINZ)

The current Days to Sell of 53 days is more than the 10-year average for January which is 44 days. There were 25 weeks of inventory in January 2023 which is 13 weeks more than the same time last year.

Regional Analysis - Wellington

“Median prices in the capital decreased 16.4% year-on-year to $765,000.

“Owner occupiers were most active, above first home buyers and investors.

“Most vendors are more realistic with their expectations of price and timeframe — many of these vendors are ones that need to sell. Sales counts decreased by 21.9% when compared to this time last year. Properties are also taking longer to sell. The median days to sell is up 13 days annually from 49 days in January 2022 to 62 in January 2023.” (REINZ)

The current Days to Sell of 62 days is much more than the 10-year average for January of 45 days. There were 18 weeks of inventory in January 2023 which is 4 weeks more than the same time last year.

Regional Analysis - Nelson/Marlborough

“Median prices in the Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman regions decreased by 11.3%, 7.1% and 12.8% annually to $670,000, $650,000 and $775,000 respectively.

“Marlborough salespeople say owner occupiers were the main buyer pool, and that the overarching concern in the market is the cost of living, rising interest rates and job insecurity.

“In Nelson, low-to-middle price range buyers were active. Salespeople say that there has been a slowdown in decision making rather than a decline in the numbers of buyers.

“Stock levels are high in Nelson — up 106.7% annually, and new listings up 5.0%. Marlborough’s stock levels also increased by 81.4%, but new listings were down 6.0%.

“Local salespeople say that the market tends to slow in the lead up to an election, but more investors are keeping an eye out in anticipation for a potential change in Government.” (REINZ)

The current Days to Sell of 60 days is much more than the 10-year average for January which is 42 days. There were 26 weeks of inventory in January 2023 which is 17 weeks more than the same time last year.

Regional Analysis - West Coast

“The median price on the West Coast increased annually by 5.3% to $360,000. The region was the only one to have an increase in the number of sales — up 4.0% on January 2022 (from 25 sales to 26 sales in January 2023).

Listings were down 15.8% year-on-year but there was steady enquiry from out-of-town buyers which appear to be the main source of interest recently. Visitor numbers are high with a top spell of weather ensuring great exposure to the wider marker. Local salespeople anticipate a slow but steady year ahead.” (REINZ)

The current Days to Sell of 46 days is much less than the 10-year average for January which is 60 days. There were 46 weeks of inventory in January 2023 which is 31 weeks more than the same time last year.

Regional Analysis - Canterbury

“The median price in Canterbury marginally decreased this January by 1.5% to $640,000. Two districts in Canterbury reached record median prices: Hurunui District ($785,000) and Timaru District ($535,000).

“Timaru and Ashburton had a decrease of first home buyers in the market over January with local salespeople saying there was a lack of stock in the lower price range. In Christchurch, first home buyers are out and about, seeing some good enquiry.

“The flooding in the North Island has generated more interest from out-of-town buyers, but salespeople say this January was standard to others with a slow start to the year. Auction campaigns are beginning to grow and there is the sight of long-term interest rates easing, but many remain uncertain about what this year will bring. The numbers of sales eased by 24.6% when compared to this time last year, and properties are taking an additional 14 days to sell.” (REINZ)

The current Days to Sell of 45 days is more than the 10-year average for January which is 42 days. There were 20 weeks of inventory in January 2023 which is 11 weeks more than the same time last year.

Regional Analysis - Otago

Dunedin: 

In January 2023, the median price in Dunedin was down 23.1% annually to $515,000.

January tends to be a slower month in terms of sales activity due to the holidays, and our latest data shows that the number" (REINZ)

Queenstown:

The median price in the Queenstown-Lakes District saw a marginal annual decrease of 1.6% to $1,265,000 this January

"The number of sales in the region decreased by 15.4% year-onyear. Whilst the cost of living and inflation remain a concern for many, local salespeople say that they are starting to see market confidence gain momentum with tourist numbers high over summer. The Queenstown-Lakes District market is cautious but quietly confident." (REINZ)

The current Days to Sell of 60 days is much more than the 10-year average for January which is 44 days. There were 22 weeks of inventory in January 2023 which is 10 weeks more than the same time last year.

Regional Analysis - Southland

“The Southland region saw a marginal decrease of 2.1% in its median price year-on-year to $420,000.

“First home buyers have made a comeback and are taking advantage of new listings which are up 5.2% compared to this time last year.

“Vendors are adjusting their expectations on price — with fewer buyers and more stock, they’re understanding they need to be competitive to sell.

“Sales counts are down 29.0% annually largely due to the cost of living, fewer buyers in the market, and the fear of a looming recession.” (REINZ)

The current Days to Sell of 51 days is more than the 10-year average for January which is 42 days. There were 17 weeks of inventory in January 2023 which is 7 weeks more than the same time last year.