As we move through 2026, the rural property market is showing a level of confidence not seen since before the global financial crisis. Improving returns, healthier balance sheets, and a stronger commodity cycle are giving farmers and growers the confidence to make long-term decisions again.
Across much of the country, farming businesses are entering the new season in a significantly stronger position than they were just a few years ago. Improved profitability is allowing debt to be reduced, investment plans to be reconsidered, and succession conversations to move forward with greater certainty. After several years of volatility, there is a growing sense that the fundamentals are once again working in favour of New Zealand's primary sector.
With farmgate returns improving and agri-bank lending available at sensible levels, the market is benefiting from some of the strongest conditions we have seen in years. While every farming sector faces its own challenges, there is broad confidence in the long-term outlook for New Zealand agriculture and the role it continues to play in the country's economic success.
That confidence is not simply reflected in conversations around the kitchen table. It is showing up in real market activity. We recently reviewed Property Brokers' farm settlements around the traditional 1 June dairy settlement period, covering 28 May to 5 June.
During that period, we settled 128 farms worth $684 million, compared to 60 farms worth $368 million over the same period last year. In all my years in the industry, I can't recall seeing a year-on-year shift of this magnitude.
The dairy sector has been a major driver of this activity, accounting for around 80% of our 1 June settlements and representing approximately $550 million in settled sales. Strong commodity prices, improving profitability, and renewed confidence in future earnings are clearly translating into buying and selling decisions.
What is particularly encouraging is that this activity is not limited to established operators. Much is said about how difficult it has become for the next generation to get onto the property ladder. While those challenges are real, it has been particularly pleasing to see 23 new-to-farm ownership transactions completed this season. For me, that's one of the most encouraging indicators in the market and a reminder that opportunities still exist for people looking to build a future in the rural sector.
The ability for new entrants to establish themselves remains critical to the long-term health of rural New Zealand. Fresh energy, new ideas and the willingness to invest in farming businesses all contribute to the ongoing strength of our communities and industries.
Looking ahead, we believe opportunities are likely to continue into next season, particularly across the sheep and beef sector as returns improve and confidence in the forward outlook strengthens. While markets will always experience cycles, the current environment is providing many farmers with options that simply weren't available a few years ago.
For farmers looking to grow, opportunities are rarely found by standing still. Sometimes it pays to get out, have a look around and explore what might be possible beyond your own boundary fence. Whether that means expanding an existing operation, restructuring assets, or simply gaining a better understanding of what's happening in your local market, there is real value in keeping an open mind.
Whether you're thinking about buying, selling or simply seeking a second opinion on your options, our True Team is here to help with practical advice, local knowledge and a long-term view of the market.
