This is our last rural property editorial for this calendar year, and it’s been a big year. Activity through spring and early summer has set new benchmarks and reshaped expectations for what lies ahead in 2026.
While commodity markets appear to be giving back some of the record momentum of late, there is no doubt that, economically, our export-led recovery has food production firmly back in the national interest. It always was. The dramatic shift in interest rate settings year on year has assisted our primary sector and helped rebuild confidence in support of a growth mindset.
There has also been a significant shift in policy settings out of Wellington this year, with the regulation of large-scale “pasture to forestry” land conversions. This has levelled the playing field in favour of pastoral farming, enabling farmers to compete for growth opportunities and consider their own land-use management options. The full impact of this regulatory change has yet to play through, given the moratorium in force this year under the previous settings. In addition, Hill Country farmers are yet to have the benefit of a full financial year under the improved commodity outlook. In our view, a more regulated forestry market, materially improved interest rates, and confidence in the forward commodity cycle will continue to underpin the Hill Country market in 2026.
In reviewing the season with our senior rural property team, it’s clear the market is now operating across three levels: regional, national, and international. On behalf of our vendors, we have experienced a record year, with all three buyer groups contributing to this performance.
Having recently returned from a trip across the Tasman and meetings with international fund managers in Melbourne, there is no doubt that direct foreign investment in New Zealand agribusiness is back on the agenda. However, New Zealand buyers, both regionally and nationally, continue to hold a strong competitive advantage through proven capability and business acumen at scale without any of the uncertainty associated with Overseas Investment Office conditional agreement.
The consistent theme across all buyer interest is confidence: confidence to invest, to grow, and to progress strategies, with the business case for dairy looking very favourable on current valuations.
This spring saw the first going-concern dairy enterprise sale to an international fund manager in recent years. This marks a turning point, given that since December 2017, international buyers seeking a controlling interest in New Zealand dairy farm businesses have been largely excluded from the market.
This season marked one of the most decisive periods the rural property market has seen in recent years.
The purchaser of these South Otago farms met the Overseas Investment Office benefit-to-New-Zealand test on the strength of proposed irrigation development underpinning future production potential, along with the operation being managed and leased by a New Zealand company. This landmark dairy transaction also attracted strong regional and national buyer interest but ultimately succeeded on the merits of the approved business case and anticipated employment outcomes.
This season has also been characterised by a dominant theme of “once-in-a-generation” farming portfolios being brought to market. Historically, particularly within dairy, the market has struggled to accommodate large-scale offerings due to the quantum of capital required and the cost of finance, which have long been the primary constraints. The exclusion of international buyer interest over the past eight years has also been a defining factor.
While the all-in costs of owning and operating large-scale dairy assets have not materially changed, confidence to secure funding and investment partnerships has. As a result, we continue to bring forward some outstanding New Zealand dairy assets this season, with early 2026 seeing this trend continue through the marketing of a portfolio of high quality dairy properties in the Manawatu.
In summary, the outlook heading into 2026 reflects a markedly improved and more balanced operating environment in support of food production. Forestry is moving toward a more regulated framework supporting Hill Country land use; dairying at scale now has broader and more flexible ownership pathways available; and horticulture and viticulture continue to attract domestic and international investor interest, despite current headwinds within viticulture.
If there was ever a year to reassess business growth opportunities as New Zealand moves beyond this recessionary period, owning productive land remains a strong place to start. We thank our vendors for the confidence and trust they have placed in us to successfully market their properties this season, and we look forward to 2026 and the opportunities ahead to build on this momentum.
Whether you are looking to buy or sell your farm or lifestyle property, our True Team is here to exceed your expectations. With the right balance of experience, energy, and local insight on your side, you can move forward with confidence alongside Property Brokers.
